Deliverable 1.17

Abstract: Report from workshop on uncertainties with the application of downscaled climate scenarios

Deliverable 1.17 was initially intended to be a report from workshop on uncertainties with the application of downscaled climate scenarios. The climate scenario generation in WP1 needed to consider sources of uncertainty, e.g. choice of general and regional climate models (GCM and RCM, respectively) and uncertainty of downscaling to the individual catchment areas. Thus an "expert workshop on uncertainty” was planned to take place early on in the Project to which climate modellers from Reading (Meteorological Department and Hadley Centre), University of East Anglia and other experts in down-scaling were to be invited.

As the project progressed, it did not appear practical to organise this workshop because of (i) limited availability of the external experts for the workshop and (ii) a large amounts of information generated by other projects focusing specifically on this issue (e.g. PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES). Instead, Dr Shahgedanova (WP1 co-leader) attended the final meeting of the ENSEMBLES project prior to the start of REFRESH in November 2010 (Exeter, UK) and consulted directly with ENSEMBLES meteorologists throughout Year 1 of REFRESH focusing on impacts of selection of GCM/RCM combinations. In particular, Dr Shahgedanova had regular and extensive consultations with ENSEMBLES researchers who had extensively reviewed uncertainty of climate predications due to the choice of RCM-GCM combinations for various regions of Europe in the course of ENSEMBLES project.

Methods of uncertainty assessment developed in ENSEMBLES were applied to the demonstration catchment areas used in REFRESH by Dr. Shahgedanova. These assessments have been summarised in a presentation given at the annual project meeting in Aberdeen ( which allowed WP5 to make an informed choice of climate data for their simulations. This presentation constitutes the main substance of Deliverable 1.17.

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