Deliverable 1.8

Abstract: Land-use scenarios for one demonstration catchment together with a model land-use system and software interface for the other catchments

Land use scenarios for the Dee catchment were carried out following the IPCC SRES framework, which define scenarios storylines using two axes, namely global to regional governance and economic to environmental values (Deliverable 1.7). Four storylines for the Dee catchment were defined, and based upon these a series of quantitative rules were developed to allow modelling spatial simulations of land use using the LandSFACTS toolkit. The ‘Local stewardship’ scenario was not modelled at this scale because its rational was based upon a ‘bottom up’ characterisation at the local level (Tarland sub-catchment). The scenarios consider impacts and adaptation to climate change (2050) from land use through its impact on biophysical limitations (land capability) for different uses (e.g. arable, permanent pasture, woodland, semi-natural land). For example, under the “National Enterprise” (A2) scenario if more land is capable of arable agriculture then, as the priority is food security, that land is converted from its existing use to meet that need.

The approach used follows the land use scenarios guidelines as reported in Deliverable 1.9. TIFF files in GIS compatible format describing scenarios for the Dee catchment have been uploaded onto the REFRESH file store. This report provides a brief explanation and directs the reader to i) The LandSFACTS software with its interface, helpfiles and tutorials and ii) Specific guidelines within the context of REFRESH’s land use scenarios generation in Deliverable 1.9. It is an internal deliverable targeted at those working on the Dee catchment.

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