Euro-limpacs Deliverables

ABSTRACT - DELIVERABLE 133

Report summarising outputs from modelling and other technical outputs

The full pressure brought to bear by climate change on local agricultural systems, in this case those of England and Wales, is not purely a product of local or regional climate change itself. It is also due to the positive and negative impacts of global climate change experienced all over the world, which will translate into price and demand fluctuations in the home market. The objective of this work is to translate such global pressures as likely to affect land use decisions (future climate change and socio−economic developments e.g. developments in trade policies, economic and population growth etc.) into land use changes at the catchment scale, in order that these outputs can be fed into the GIS−based Decision Support System and catchment modelling modules developed as part of the overall project.In order to achieve the above objective, information (climatic, demographic, economic etc) derived from modelling exercises based at the global level is filtered down through regional models to a national level model of England and Wales agriculture i.e. the Reading Climate and Land Use Allocation Model (CLUAM), to provide estimates of land use change down to the river catchment level. All the models, global, regional and national are kept internally consistent by using a suite of scenarios.

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