Adaptive Strategies to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems

The main aim of this work is to estimate effect of climate change on discharge patterns and nutrient loading from a forested head water catchment by using a 'bottom up' approach. Total N and total P loads from the Mustajoki catchment to the Lake Pääjärvi in southern Finland are simulated by the INCA family models INCA-N and INCA-SED which has the same method to calculate runoff. The effect of climate change in discharges is also modeled with the hydrological model Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System (WSFS), which is used to produce the input data for the nutrient model. The response surface of the N/P relationship of the nutrient load was calculated from the simulations. In the study area the climate change models predict 10-24% increase in annual precipitation and 2.8-4.9 °C increase in mean temperature in Had3 A2 and B2 and Echam A2 and B2 scenarios for 2070-2100.