Adaptive Strategies to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems

This position paper aims to summarise our current understanding of the impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems in Europe based principally on the outputs of the EU-funded Euro-limpacs project. It also draws upon the results of related international and national projects. We describe the key changes to the climate system that are expected to occur in Europe over the next 100 years and then consider:

1. the impact of climate change on the physical characteristics of freshwater ecosystems distinguishing between change that is already being observed and changes that are anticipated in future;
2. the ecological consequences of climate change with respect to lakes, rivers and wetlands across Europe, dividing the continent between cold ecoregions (high latitude and altitude), temperate and warm-humid ecoregions and warm-arid regions (principally the Mediterranean region);
3. adaptation measures that could be adopted to mitigate the adverse consequences of climate change projected as a result of increasing water temperature, changes in hydrology and hydromorphology, including interactions with problems of eutrophication, acidification and toxic substance contamination; and
4. implications for policy, especially the implementation of the EU Water Framework and Habitat Directives and the development of cross-sectoral policies for water resources, agriculture, energy, economic development, and atmospheric emissions where water quality issues are affected. We stress the importance of policies that incorporate precautionary principles in face of the probability that greenhouse gas emissions may not be rapidly stabilised.

Throughout we emphasise the uncertainties involved in our projections including those that are not only due to limitations in our understanding of freshwater ecosystems but also due to the inherent difficulty in predicting how the key drivers affecting water quality and freshwater biodiversity, especially those related to agricultural policy, will change in the future. Finally we make recommendations for future research stressing the need for a fully integrated approach based on a network of data-rich, well-monitored research catchments across the continent.