Euro-limpacs Deliverables

ABSTRACT - DELIVERABLE 70

Report summarising assessment of socio-economic scenarios required for modelling

This report describes the methodologies used to generate NOx and SOx deposition and agricultural land−management scenarios for use in the Euro−limpacs project, together with initial results up to Month 18. To calculate NOx and SOx deposition it is necessary to first calculate NOx and SOx emissions, and this is the subject of this report. Specifically, a method to determine the adjusted energy system necessary to meet a target of 450 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere by 2100 is presented based on coupling the FAIR, IMAGE 2.2 and GET models. The method incorporates changes to the energy−system necessary to conform to the Kyoto Protocol and the EU Directive on Renewable Energy and considers the four images of the future proposed by the IPCC. Preliminary results indicate that to achieve the atmospheric CO2 target, in both OECD Europe and Eastern Europe, the energy−system must move from a system currently dominated by coal, oil and gas to one more dependent on ?non−thermal? energy: solar, wind, geothermal, other renewable and nuclear. Emissions of NOx and SOx are predicted to decrease with the adjusted energy system but insufficiently to comply with the Gothenburg Protocol. Further work is necessary to convert the NOx and SOx emissions into deposition; the source−receptor method is proposed and will be implemented in the next phase of work. The estimated emissions of NOx and SOx will then be used as input to the Decision Support System (work package 9) and the catchment models (work packages 4 and 6) to evaluate the impact on the soil and stream−water acidity, and the storage and retention of nitrogen.

The Climate and Land Use Allocation Model (CLUAM) was used to estimate the likely changes in land−use and management resulting from projected changes in climate, market−price and volume of production in the UK. Preliminary results indicate that the area of cereals under all non−climate−change futures is significantly lower than in the mid 1990s in the UK. This is a reflection the of yield increases that are forecast over the intervening 30−50 years. These yield increases vary between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Four catchments have been selected in the UK as study−areas where the predicted changes in land−use will be input to a catchment model of nitrogen dynamics to simulate the impacts on the storage and retention of nitrogen in the catchment soils, groundwater and stream−water.

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